According to the Encyclopedia of International Development , the term demographic trap is used by demographics "to describe a combination of high fertility (birth rate) and decreased mortality (death rate) in developing countries, high population growth rate (PGR). "High fertility combined with a decline in mortality occurs when a developing country moves through a demographic transition to develop.
During "phase 2" of the demographic transition, the quality of health care increased and mortality rates declined, but the birth rate remained high, resulting in a period of high population growth. The term "demographic trap " is used by some demographics to describe a situation in which stage 2 continues because "a declining standard of living reinforces the prevailing high fertility, which in turn reinforces the decline in living standards." This generates more poverty, where people rely on more children to give them economic security. Social scientist John Avery explains that this result due to high birth rates and low mortality "leads to population growth so rapidly that development that can slow population is impossible."
Video Demographic trap
Results
One significant outcome of this "demographic trap" is the explosive population growth. It is currently seen throughout Asia, Africa and Latin America, where mortality rates have fallen during the last half of the 20th century due to advanced health care. However, in the following decades most of the countries were unable to continue to improve economic development to adjust their population growth: by filling educational needs for more school-aged children; creating more jobs for a growing workforce; and provide basic infrastructure and services, such as waste, roads, bridges, water supply, electricity and stable food supplies.
The probable outcome of a country remaining trapped in stage 2 is that its government may reach a state of "demographic fatigue," Donald Kaufman wrote. Under these conditions, the government will lack the financial resources to stabilize its population growth and become unable to effectively deal with threats from natural disasters, such as hurricanes, floods, landslides, droughts, and diseases. According to Kaufman, many countries that suffer from "demographic fatigue" will slip back to stage 1, resulting in high fertility rates and high mortality rates. "If they do," he stated, "these countries may soon achieve zero population growth, but at a terrible price." He gave the example of Zimbabwe, where 26 percent of the adult population has AIDS and the average person has a life expectancy of only 40 years.
Environmentalist Lester Brown noted that 16 of the 20 countries designated as "failed states" in 2010 are trapped in this demographic trap, and are unlikely to get out of it. Brown described Sudan as a "classic case" of a country trapped in a demographic trap:
- "It has grown considerably economically and socially to reduce mortality, but not far enough to reduce fertility, resulting in an average woman having four children, double the amount needed for replacement, and the population 41 million grew by more than 2,000 per day.Under this pressure, Sudan - like a number of other countries - is being destroyed. "
Examples of developing and successful developing countries from stage 2 to stage 3 are South Korea and Taiwan, capable of moving toward smaller families, and thereby improving living standards. This results in a further decrease in fertility rates.
It has recently been argued that the emergence of major social-political upheaval at the escape of the Malthus trap (an idea similar to a demographic trap) is not an abnormal phenomenon, but a common phenomenon.
Maps Demographic trap
Another viewpoint
The existence of a controversial "trap". Some demographers see it only as a temporary problem, which can be eliminated with better education and better family planning. Others think "traps" are more of a long-term symptom of failure to educate children and provide a safety net against poverty, so more families see children as a form of "securing income" for the future. Nevertheless, many social scientists agree that family planning should be an important part of public health and economic development.
Others argue that, while the combination of increased fertility and declining mortality is a very real phenomenon, there is no reason to assume that this is harmful to developing countries. In The Ultimate Resource , economist Julian Simon argues that human intelligence is a more important resource for economic growth than natural resources. Because population growth is accompanied by increased resource efficiency, new discoveries of natural resources, development of replacements, and changing consumer desires, population growth will often support economic growth rather than hinder it.
Example
- Gaza Strip
- Yemen
- Egypt
Note
See also
- Malthusian catastrophe
- Demographic transition
- Economic demography
- Demographic window
- Excess Population
External links
- Lester Brown speaks at U.C. Berkeley, where he described the "demographic trap" in the last 10 minutes. from 1 hour. video
Source of the article : Wikipedia
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